The chance to create a transformative economic revolution for the continent is here, yet the potential of this remains untapped. With the AfCFtA in motion, Africa has an unprecedented opportunity to unlock, boost, and sustain intra-continental trade, reduce dependence on foreign markets, and build a self-reliant economy.
For decades, African nations have largely relied on foreign imports even when they have the capacity to produce and trade among themselves. Intra-African trade stands at 14.4% while the continent’s trade with external partners such as Asia stands at 59% and Europe at 68% creating an imbalance that exposes African economies to the effects of supply chain disruptions and fluctuating commodity prices as well as exploitative trade agreements that often work against the continent’s long-term interests. The effect of this foreign reliance makes most African countries operate with weak currencies in struggling economies.
The AfCFTA aims to create the world’s largest free trade zone by connecting 1.8 billion people with a combined GDP of over $3.4 trillion. Adopted in 2018, the AfCFTA is expected to increase intra-African trade by 33% and reduce the continent’s trade deficit by 51%. Despite all these benefits, it is yet to be domesticated in the national and local economies of most nations within the continent. The agreement is suffering from slow implementation and a rather sluggish start which will not help the agreement achieve its desired outcomes.
While the Agreement offers a wide range of possibilities from trade between individuals from different nations to trade between nations, one recent dimension has emerged and become a critical shift in intra-Africa trade relations – one that, if fully embraced, could accelerate economic prosperity across the continent.
The recent discussions between Zambia’s government and Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery over fuel imports to cater to Zambia’s domestic consumption exemplify how trading within Africa can enhance supply stability, competitive pricing, and the economic resilience of the African economy. Established in February 2025, the Zambia-Dangote deal, when finalized, will not only challenge the outdated model of sourcing fuel from distant foreign markets but will also reduce Zambia’s costs and strengthen African economic ties.
It is therefore not out of place to understudy the Dangote refinery as a model for African trade because this kind of trade relationship envisions the AfCFTA – African nations supplying each other’s needs while keeping wealth and opportunities within the continent. One of the largest in the world, Aliko Dangote’s $19 billion refinery in Lagos, Nigeria is a symbol of what Africa can achieve when it invests in itself.
Before the refinery was launched, Nigeria – a major oil producer ironically imported the majority of its refined petroleum products from Europe and other regions due to insufficient local refining capacity. But with Dangote’s refinery operational in January 2024, Africa now has a homegrown solution that can supply fuel across the continent, cutting costs and reducing dependency on imports.
If Zambia and other African nations embrace this model of regional trade relationships, there are lots of benefits awaiting them such as a significant lowering of the excessive shipping costs of products tied to foreign imports, and reduction in the high import tariffs. It would also lead to job creation as technological advancement and industrial expansion will require more hands to run the new system and the ready-to-work young, innovative workforce will be engaged.
Four years after the Agreement was established, progress towards its implementation has been slow. Bureaucratic hurdles and infrastructural challenges remain, and protectionist policies still limit trade among African countries. We can activate our continental prosperity by beginning to trade with one another. Zambia’s move to source fuel from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery provides a good glimpse into what Africa’s future can look like. The AfCFTA provides the framework to make this future a reality only if African leaders act urgently to implement it fully.
One of the simplest ways to make the benefits of the agreement well known to more businesses and entrepreneurs is for the government to make consistent awareness about it. In addition to this, trade organizations and governments need to prioritize regional trade and pay attention to how disputes can be resolved diplomatically to ensure the free flow of trade. There is an urgent need to harmonize trade policies and certification processes to make it easier for businesses to operate within African borders as well as invest in infrastructure including roads, railways, and ports, and facilitate digital connectivity to support seamless trade across regions.
If countries remove unnecessary tariffs, simplify complex border regulations, and remove bureaucratic bottlenecks that slow down cross-border trade then the long-desired economic integration will be achieved. Africa can trade with itself. It’s time to stop endless discussions and make conscious and intentional decisions that will open the path for Africa to trade its way to prosperity.
Bayonle Fesobi is the Research and Policy Analyst at Ominira Initiative for Economic Advancement.
